When you
talk to your banker to make an investment, before he give you any advises, he’s
gone to ask you a lot of questions in order to evaluate your objectives, and
you capacity to manage risk. Base on the answers, he will propose a portfolio
with a percentage of: Fix revenues, low risk funds, higher speculative funds,
and sometime direct investment is public corporations.
An
accredited investor will generally self-manage his investment. Even if he is more
open to risk, and have more experience to manage it, he’s still gone to wish to
invest a part of his assets in safe options, another part in more active
products, and a last portion in risky business with explosive potential.
Up to
recently, acting as an angel investor was the risky business. Today, angel
groups still give an exciting opportunity to accredited investors, but
behaviour is different. As discuss in another post, angel group are not at seed
level for start-ups, they are acting between seed and VCs, which is often call
funding round 1.
Crowdfunding will act at seed level, and
investors that wish to invest 10 or 20% of their asset in potentially explosive
products will have to follow that new trend.
At seed
level, a start-up will generally look for 25 to $200K investment. Consider this
example; In order to give a good number of shares to investors; a start-up at
seed level sells new shares at $0.25 each. Those shares may also be granted of
some purchasing options for following funding round.
After few
months, if the product delivers as expected, we are now at the next funding
round for commercialisation. As all facilities of a new corporation must be
set, require funding will be few hundreds to one or two millions dollars. Angel
groups will be interested here, as the corporation already have presales of a
tested product. In this case, shares should be sales between one to three
dollars per unit.
As sales growth
well, it will be time for a larger factory, or to begin international
deployment. Investment require in round 2 is now 5 to $20M; its time for VCs to
act. At this point, we have established profitability, detail market potentials
and a good management team. In our example, shares should be sales between five
to twenty dollars.
Next step
is the exit for investors, it is time for strategic investors, or IPO.
In our
example, as we have few years of profitable operation, shares may worth 25 to
$100.
In short:
Seed
investment is at
time 0 and shares worth $0.25.
Round 1 is at time 6 to 18 months, share
worth 1 to $3.
Round 2 is due after 1 to 3 years, share
worth 5 to $20.
Round 3 is 3 to 8 years after beginning,
share worth 25 to $100.
However the
sale scenario, the ROI is always much higher for seed investment.
Future
of seed investment is crowdfunding, where accredited investors can bet $5-20K on an
idea, or a charismatic entrepreneur. The objective now is to build a structure
that scammer will not destroy before it’s become mature. This is the subject of
my next post.
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